At the time of writing, Brent was trading around $78/bbl.īenchmark crude oil prices traded in a narrow range in June as persistent economic woes overshadowed deepening supply cuts from some OPEC+ countries. Asian crude benchmark Dubai outperformed WTI and Brent, as a tight East of Suez sour crude market contrasted sharply with a comfortably supplied Atlantic Basin.

Additional voluntary cuts by some OPEC members and a weaker US dollar failed to dispel the macro gloom. Amid range-bound trading, ICE Brent futures fell by $1/bbl m-o-m in June to $75/bbl, as hawkish central bank policies continued to weigh on investor sentiment.Preliminary data show a 9.2 mb draw in June. Oil on water declined by 23 mb as additional OPEC+ output cuts saw seaborne oil exports falling to their lowest since January. By contrast, OECD oil stocks drew by a marginal 1.8 mb. A substantial 44.2 mb build in non-OECD countries, led by a surge in China, pushed global observed oil inventories up by 19.4 mb in May to the highest since September 2021.Moscow has promised a further 500 kb/d cut to exports from August to stem declining prices and revenues, but may hold production steady as domestic oil demand rises seasonally. Estimated export revenues plunged by $1.5 bn to $11.8 bn – nearly half the levels of a year ago. Russian oil exports fell 600 kb/d to 7.3 mb/d in June, their lowest since March 2021.Refining margins remain robust, with very strong Atlantic Basin gasoline cracks and rapid gains in diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil more than offsetting weak naphtha cracks. Higher Russian crude runs and the start-up of new refining capacity underpin the revision.

Refinery crude throughput estimates for 20 have been raised by 130 kb/d and 90 kb/d, respectively, to 82.5 mb/d and 83.5 mb/d.

In 2024, global supply is set to rise by 1.2 mb/d to a new record of 102.8 mb/d, with non-OPEC+ accounting for all of the increase. For 2023, global production is forecast to increase by 1.6 mb/d to 101.5 mb/d, as non-OPEC+ expands by 1.9 mb/d.

World oil supply rose 480 kb/d to 101.8 mb/d in June but is set to fall sharply this month as Saudi Arabia makes a sharp 1 mb/d voluntary output cut.

Buoyed by surging petrochemical use, China will account for 70% of global gains, while OECD consumption remains anaemic. However, persistent macroeconomic headwinds, apparent in a deepening manufacturing slump, have led us to revise our 2023 growth estimate lower for the first time this year, by 220 kb/d.

Global oil demand is projected to climb by 2.2 mb/d in 2023 to reach 102.1 mb/d, a new record.

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